This course is currently taught by Greg Paoli and Todd Ruthman of Risk Sciences International.
Quantitative Risk Assessment teaches participants the basics of building and understanding quantitative risk assessment models and provides participants with the opportunity to develop, scrutinize and present Monte Carlo simulation models.
This one week course will cover basic modeling concepts, including both deterministic and probabilistic modeling approaches. Participants will be taught how to build risk assessment models using Excel with one of the more commonly-used commercial software packages (@RISK). This course will provide participants with a strong foundation in stochastic processes, probabilistic risk assessment and Monte Carlo simulation. Participants will gain a deeper understanding of the principles and mechanics of Monte Carlo simulation, build models using these principles, and learn how to analyze probabilistic models in a risk assessment context. The course will also discuss how to use data and expert opinion when building models. Participants can expect to gain hands-on experience in building and analyzing computer-based probabilistic models and experience some techniques and challenges to expect in presenting their results to various audiences. Learning by example, participants will be given exercises involving elements of real world risk assessments that are being used in current policy and risk management.
Participants should have basic knowledge of probability and statistics and intermediate level skills in using Microsoft Excel 2003. We also strongly recommend Food Safety Risk Assessment as a prerequisite to this course.